Summary:
Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet. The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA (Triaryani) coal and takes US$7-8/t out of the annual cost base.
A large, long-life anchor. TRA holds ~300Mt 2P, the core of a group reserve base that supports a ~12–15-year mine life at the planned 20–25 MTPA run-rate.
Cheap on a rebound year — with leverage to upside coal price.
The swing factor is Jakarta, not Hormuz. Danantara/DSI consolidation, FX-retention rules (100% retained; ≤50% IDR-conversion cap retained), royalty/HBA linkage and the RKAB/DMO regime drive the downside case.
We initiate coverage of Geo Energy with a BUY and an intrinsic value of S$0.69, 24% upside to the current S$0.555 share price.
